All posts by Aditya

Bullion, Investment

Investing in Collectible coins

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Its been almost a year since I wrote about investing in coins – Investment of a different Kind Buy collectible coins.

Gold and Silver prices have sea-sawed in this timeframe. We saw Gold hitting lows of 1536 and highs of 1794 whereas Silver went to highs of 37.14 and lows of 26.35.

But what happened to the value of coins?

The Bullion category like – American Silver Eagles, Austrian Phila and Canadian Maple leaves have moved slong with the silver price. However the Australian Mint – Kookaburras and Lunar Series, Chinese Pandas and Canadian wildlife series have shown reaonable appreciation.

The 2012 Lunar Dragon 1 oz Silver coin that was launched at SGD$60 a piece now sells for SGD$75 or more (25% appreciation)

The 2012 1 oz silver Panda moved from SGD$53 to SGD$60 (13% appreciation)

Canadian Wildlife Wolf 1 oz silver that was selling for SGD60 in the last year now retails for over SGD90 – a whooping 50% increase.

Silver however has remained flat year over year (One could have bought these coins for cheaper when  the silver price fell to 26-27USD).

So which coins am I looking to invest in for the next year?

Australian Lunar series and Kookaburra is a favorite, 2013 is the year of the snake and mintage remains at only 300,000 pieces. Kookaburra mintage however has been increased to 1,000,000 pieces from 500,000 for 2012.

Canadian Wildlife series – Antelope – mintage of 1,000,000 and 5th coin in the series. Only one more coin to come

Somalia Elephants – These are my new favorites. The finish is proof like (shiny back surface) and mintage only 5000 coins, These coins have been around for a few years but have only caught on now. The past years have appreciated substantially and difficult o find. years 2011, 2012 and 2013 are still available at a reasonable price

Rwanda Wildlife – These are great coins with a mintage of 5000 pieces as well, Just like the Somalia Elephants the past years are hard to find. The 2013 Cheetah is already becoming difficult to buy and 2012 Rhino is in great demand. Previous years like Gorilla and lion retail for over 250SGD.

What I also like about Rwanda and Somalia coins is that these are minted in germany and have excellent quality. With the wealth of these nations rising in next decade or so the appreciation of older coins from these countries is bound to increase.

Bullion, Finance, Investment

2013 Gold and Silver price prediction by Leading Banks

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Just a quick consolidation of what leading banks are predicting for Gold and Silver in 2013. The table has been left blank where information could not be found.

2013 Forecast

The forecasts for 2012 can be found at the link –

Gold – http://www.lbma.org.uk/pages/index.cfm?page_id=142

Silver – http://www.lbma.org.uk/pages/index.cfm?page_id=142

The general consensus was for Gold to breach USD2000 and silver to stay above USD44 – neither of which has happened. Would be interesting to see if Gold and Silver can cross $2000 and $40 respectively this year.

Forex, Remittances, SGD INR

SGD INR: Implied Exchange Rates

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Its been a while since I posted and SGD INR has gone on a see-saw ride since then :). People holding SGD against INR were taken aback the quick fall from 45 to 42 in a matter of days.

As always I stick to the strategy to convert and invest in Indian NRE accounts if you are happy with a 9% yield and have a time frame of atleast 1 year.

Here is the chart that gives the implied SGD INR rate based on Interest rates…Rule of the thumb is to convert whenever the Exchange rate stays above the Red line.

The current implied rate is 42.30Rs/$, which also is a strong support for the pair.

Having said that if Indian Govt follows reforms aggresively INR is bound to appreciate and the pair would breach the line downwards.

 

Forex, Remittances, SGD INR

SGD-INR: Expected to maintain 38~40 range post Budget

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The Indian rupee has moved within the expected range of 38.0 ~ 39.5 for the past few weeks as the Greek bailout unfolded and the Indian government presented the 2012 budget. As we near towards the end of first quarter its time to take stock of the old and new variables at play.

The Euro situation

It would be naive to say that the eurozone crisis is completely resolved. This is a temporary respite as policy makers try and reign in situations in Spain, Portugal and Italy which could spell bigger trouble. The general analyst consensus is for a weakening Euro. Any weakness in euro would be Rupee negative as it would impact exports

Interest rates in India

RBI paused the regime of interest rate hikes in its latest monetary policy statement. The tug here is between inflation and growth, the expectation is for RBI to start lowering rates in the second half of the year. Oil Prices as always would be a key here as a large part of foreign exchange outflows are used towards the oil bill. I am expecting rupee to move in the 48.5~51.5 range against USD for next few weeks.

One factor which could result in rupee weakness as a result of FII outflows is the new tax law that allows the Income tax department to charge corporations for past dealings.

Singapore Growth

The Singapore exports grew at a impressive 30% and another survey results highlighted Singapore economy to be most resilient of all Asian economies. This would attract investment flows into Singapore but the expectation is for SGD to stay around the 1.26 level against the USD.

Putting all these aspects together I am expecting INR to stay within the 38 ~ 40 range (widening it by 50p due to positives for SGD and INR negatives). The overall bias should still remain INR positive.

So my strategy would be convert at any rate above Rs.39.75 if you are looking to invest in India

Forex, Remittances, SGD INR

SGD INR – What’s in store for 2012

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2011, what a year it has been for the global markets and SGD INR has been a party to it. The pair started the year at 35.10 and finished at 40.74 a rise of 16%. However the pair has resumed the downtrend and is trading at 39.30 as I write – a drop of 4% from the year-end close.

Let me highlight how the past analysis has fared before delving into how the pair could move in 2012.

In the first post of the series on 23 April 2011 SGD INR – Has anything really changed the recommendation was to convert to INR and invest in deposits. The exchange rate was 35.50 on the date of writing and my recommendation was it could touch 36.5. this target was achieved on 30 May 2011.

The pair continued to move along the interest rate parity line and Tax Adjusted rate line for next 6 months before Rupee began its downslide in Sep 2011 due to weakening economy, uncontrolled inflation and financial turmoil in the global markets.

As Rupee slid from 48 to 54 against the US Dollar (USD) in the next three months its slide against the Singapore dollar was 37 to 41 – drop of 10% against either currencies.

When SGD breached 39 the prediction was for it to ride the momentum and cross 40 SGD Breaches 39 mark, Eyeing 40.

The prediction came true and Rupee went all the way to 41. In the post on 27th Nov 2011 the prediction was made for a pull back with pair ranging between 38.75 – 39.06 40 breached, What’s Next  which is on track as the pair is moving towards the 39 mark.

In the mean time a very interesting development happened as Reserve Bank of India (RBI) deregulated the NRE deposit rates to boost foreign currency supply in the market Now NRE Deposit yield 9.25%, and yes its Tax Free.

Having looked at all these factors here is my take for 2012 (stay tuned for updates every quarter, its very difficult to take a long term view in such volatile markets)

  • INR should strengthen against all currencies and SGD would be no exception.
  • On an Interest rate parity analysis SGD converted to INR and invested in an NRE account would grow to 43.25 in a years time at todays conversion rate of 39.5. The Rule I follow is to convert whenever the actual rate is above the implied rate line
  • With NRE deposits becoming tax free repatriating money in and out of India is easier
  • With Rupee strengthening the gains should be compounded for any investments made in INR

So unless you feel that SGD is headed towards a Rs45 mark in the next year investing in INR is sure to yield good return.

 

Finance, Forex, Investment, Remittances

The Fall and Rise of Indian Rupee: 45 days to lows, 45 to recovery

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What a roller coaster ride the past 3 months have been!

The rupee was trading at 48.6 against in the US dollar on 31st Oct 2011 and precipitated to touch 53.70 on 15 Dec 2011, a 10% drop. These were the historic lows for the currency and with RBI’s policy changes the rate as I write is 50 against the dollar with RBI reducing the CRR rate and rupee gaining 7% from the lows.

Inflation, falling growth numbers, uncertainity in Europe (which by the way still exists) and political roadblocks to financial reform were stated as the reasons for the weakness. All the reasons held resposible for rupees weakness are still there. Yes, inflation has eased a bit but thats pretty much the only change.

Among numerous suggestions aired to aid the rupee was for RBI to conduct open market purchases in style of Indonesian Central bank which burnt 8-9% of its foreign reserves to stabilise the rupiah. RBI however refrained and relaxed rules to make term deposits attractive for Non Residents Indians – and NRI’s did bring in money into India.

Lets see how has rupee faired against the other currencies in the past 90 days

Surprised – right!! You did not expect to see these numbers, neither did I.

Interestingly after 3 months the INR has returned back to almost where it started against all major currencies and even managed a small gain against GBP and EUR

Against the USD the losses are paltry 2.6% which is close to long term volatility number. JPY on the other hand does come up as unexpected top winner against the Rupee with gains of 3.4%, but the real numbers are the ones shown in the last column.

Extreme volatility is what the data screams – with rupee having lost over 10% against USD and JPY and over 5% against the other pairs.

Question now would be are we expecting another such bout of swings in the market?

I would say unlikely unless a sovereign default event happens.

and how about the direction of Rupee?

I am putting my money on a stable to moderately strong outlook. The RBI has held the repo rates, the CRR ratio has come down and with a weakened currency there should be a a bigger impetus on exports which should all be Rupee positive. However the political instability and global financial turmoil could more than negate any positive factors so 49 – 51 against the USD is what I would  be looking at till end of 1st quarter.

Finance, Investment, Remittances

NRE Deposit rates offered by Indian Banks

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Here is a compilation of NRE deposit rates offered by a few banks

Finance, Investment, Remittances

Now NRE Deposit yield 9.25%, and yes its Tax Free!!

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NRE or NRO – that was a constant questions NRI’s always had when investing in deposits in India.

NRO accounts got paid almost same interest rates as the term deposit rates for resident Indians whereas NRE rates were much lesser – almost a half of NRO interest rates (Banks could not offer more than 275 basis points above the global benchmark London Inter-Bank Offered Rate (LIBOR) on NRE term deposits). So if NRO account was fetching 9% then NRE account would get 4%. The catch of course was 2 critical components:

  • Interest on NRE deposits is tax-free whereas NRO attracts 30% tax
  • Both Principal and Interest in NRE account can be repatriated without any restriction but for an NRO account only interest could be repatriated

With the RBI move to deregulate the interest rates on NRE and NRO accounts on 17th Dec 2011 the stage was set for reform. After 10 days Banks came out and increased the rates on NRE deposits.

The comparison between a NRE and NRO deposit now is extremely compelling in the favor of NRE account.

So here is my recommended strategy

  1. Use a bank that has a favorable online remittance service to India. The 3 which I prefer are money2india.com by ICICI bank, Axis Remit by Axis Bank, QuickRemit by HDFC (you could use Kotak bank as well but I have not used their service). All the above banks usually take a 0.5%~1.0% cut from the inter bank exchange rate.
  2. Check the cost of conversion when converting back to Forex (Citibank and other foreign banks have usually charge up to 2% so avoid them)
  3. Open the NRE Bank account, if you don’t have one, preferably with the bank whose service you want to use to transfer money – get in touch with a relationship manager and negotiate a good exchange rate incase the bank has overseas branch

The only 2 downsides that I can foresee are:

  • Rupee continues the downward slide and the interest rate gains are wiped out by currency depreciation (the probability is low)
  • Finance Ministry introduces tax on the NRE account and bring it on par with the NRO account in the upcoming budget – if this happens then the yields would go down but the benefit of being able to repatriate money out of India would still remain
Finance, Investment

10% Stamp duty = 10% move in SGD

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The 10% additional stamp duty on all house purchases by foreigners in Singapore took everyone by surprise and thwarted the plans of buying a house for many a people. This was the second drastic attempt of the authorities to moderate the Singapore housing market after the sales tax charge of upto 16% on selling a house within 4 years brought about earlier in February 2011.

One would question why such an extreme measure was needed which made owning a house 10% expensive for foreigners.
A policy to gradually strengthen SGD has helped control the inflation since the start of the year. The exchange moved from 1.28 in Feb 2011 to 1.20 by Aug 2011 – a gain of 6%. This tamed the inflation  but did not have the desired effect to cool down the property prices.

On the flip side a strong SGD has impacted the exports of goods and services by making them more expensive. It would be worth mentioning that the Singapore Monetary authority uses Exchange rate as one of the means to implement its monetary policies.

Lets put some numbers around how exchange rate impacts the cost of housing and exports. Say someone wanted to buy a house worth 128,000 SGD in Feb 2011 (I know there is nothing available at this price) and there were others wanting to buy services worth the same amount. The cost in terms of USD would be 100,000 for either case.

Come Aug 2011 the same house was now costing 106,000 USD and the property markets were showing signs of slowing down. But the services that earn revenue for the economy and also generate employment had gotten expensive as well.

In the backdrop of slowing global economy organisations would look to move to cheaper destination to source the same goods and service. So to stay competitive something had to give way and in this case it was SGD. With the currency moving back to 1.28~1.30 range the situation turns back to Feb 2011 with the potential of housing market starting the upward journey again.

Housing is a cost of living for the residents of Singapore and rising rentals and property prices has contributed to employees looking for higher salaries to cover costs. Higher salaries again result in net higher cost for the employers.

So the next logical step was to introduce a deterrence for the foreign money chasing the Singapore property and here we have a property tax.

Possible Scenarios

The scenario could now play in 2 possible ways – Let the SGD move around the 1.30 mark or let it depreciate a little more to 1.35 range (same as 2008-2009 levels)

SGD stays around 1.30

With this new tax the same house now costs 110,000 SGD for a foreigner but the cost of services and exports stay put at 100,000.

SGD moves to 1.35 mark

If the SGD moved to 1.35 the same house would cost 104,000 USD. This would bring net cost of a house for a foreigner back to the Aug 2011 levels achieving the same impact as SGD trading at 1.20 against the USD but the exports and services would be only 95,000 USD making Singapore very competitive against other Asian countries plus the 10% revenue that the government earns from the tax could go towards benefitting the residents or tax subsidies to the companies.

So all in all the range I see SGD moving in next few months would be 1.27 to 1.34 against the USD depending on how the global events turn i.e. a 3% move either side of 1.3 mark against the USD

Finance, Forex, Remittances

Forty Breached, What’s Next??

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SGD finally breached the 40 mark against the INR and as anticipated in mid Oct all that was needed was some more chaos in the global financial markets and a move of INR to 52 against the USD and SGD claiming the 1.30 mark. Lots of movement – right?

So the obvious question which would come to mind is where is the pair headed next? Can it stay above the 40 mark? Can it march towards the 45 territory? or is it slated to drop back to 36-38 territory?

INR quickly precipitating to 52.7 mark and RBI not intervening was a surprise, people eagerly waited for an indication from the RBI governor and it finally came in the last week.

In Singapore on the other side  the inflation quickened pace predominantly attributed to weaker SGD but it did help exports.

Now the stage is set for some pullback – RBI governor relaxed rules on how much money the Indian companies could borrow in foreign markets and also increased the interest rates on the NRI accounts. Both the measures should help strengthen the Rupee as more Foreign money flows into India. The Interest Rates are still attractive @ 10% and make the deposits in India a good investment.

MAS on the other hand might let the SGD stay against the current levels to keep growth intact.

I am expecting the INR to slowly ease back to the 50 mark against the USD and SGD to hover in the 1.28 ~ 1.30 range with occasional bouts of spikes to 1.32/1.33 mark.

This should make the SGD INR pair volatile with base rate around 38.75 ~ 39.06 with occasional drops to 37.5.

Yes I am expecting a pull back!

There is an odd chance of INR moving to 55 against the USD if Italy defaults or some odd event happens in Europe. The key here would be the price of Oil for RBI, if the price falls substantially – RBI would not intervene in the market even if the rupee went all the way to 55, but if the current rates of 90$+ continues then RBI would be left with no choice but to sell some dollars and reign in the fuel price fuelled inflation